Technology readiness levels (TRLs) are a common way of measuring the maturity of a technology or innovation. They range from 1 (basic principles observed) to 9 (actual system proven in operational environment). TRLs are often used by funding agencies, investors, and customers to assess the risk and potential of a technology.
But how long does it take to advance through the different TRLs? Is there a typical or average time span for each level? The answer is not straightforward, as it depends on many factors, such as the type and complexity of the technology, the availability of resources and funding, the market demand and competition, and the regulatory and ethical issues involved.
However, some studies have attempted to provide some estimates based on historical data and case studies. For example, a report by NASA in 2015 analyzed 131 projects funded by its Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program and found that the average time to advance from TRL 1 to TRL 2 was 1.2 years, from TRL 2 to TRL 3 was 1.4 years, from TRL 3 to TRL 4 was 2.1 years, from TRL 4 to TRL 5 was 3.4 years, from TRL 5 to TRL 6 was 4.6 years, from TRL 6 to TRL 7 was 7.3 years, and from TRL 7 to TRL 8 was 9.4 years. The report also noted that the time span varied significantly depending on the technology domain and application.
Another study by the European Commission in 2016 examined 70 projects funded by its Horizon 2020 program and found that the average time to advance from TRL 3 to TRL 4 was 1.8 years, from TRL 4 to TRL 5 was 2.5 years, from TRL 5 to TRL 6 was 3.2 years, from TRL 6 to TRL 7 was 4.1 years, and from TRL 7 to TRL 8 was 5.3 years. The study also observed that the time span tended to increase with higher TRLs and more complex and interdisciplinary technologies.
These studies suggest that advancing through TRLs is not a linear or uniform process but rather a dynamic and uncertain one that requires constant adaptation and iteration. Moreover, they indicate that reaching higher levels of technology readiness can take several years or even decades, depending on the nature and scope of the innovation.
Therefore, innovators should be realistic and strategic about their expectations and plans for advancing through TRLs. They should also seek appropriate support and guidance from experts, mentors, partners, and stakeholders along the way. Advancing through TRLs is not an end in itself but a means to achieve a greater goal: creating value and impact with technology.